The December 2008 Movie Preview

by Dave Thomas

The Brothers Bloom
You expect December to be lousy with Oscar hopefuls, but damn.
December 5
PUNISHER: WAR ZONE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Punisher reboot. After, you know, one film. Kind of like The Incredible Hulk.
WILL IT SUCK?
Apparently, Lionsgate booted director Lexi Alexander (Green Street Hooligans) from the project and started pushing for a PG-13 rating, all this after getting good buzz at Comic-Con. On the other hand, there’s nothing about any of that in this recent interview with Alexander. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, since they don’t reference it at all.
I’d say it doesn’t matter either way given the sad history of comic book adaptations that are not from seriously established indie directors (your Nolans, your Singers, your Raimis), however, there were (are) some interesting elements here. One, Alexander’s one of the first (only?) women to direct a comic book film, a male-dominated genre to put it lightly. Two, the script was based on Garth Ennis’ (Preacher) take on Punisher, which pretty much necessitates a hard R, so attempts to soften that will probably fail miserably. Finally, the script comes from half of the Iron Man writing team and a Prison Break scribe, so there’s potential.
On the other hand, looking at the trailer, I’m not convinced this isn’t just Max Payne 2.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Between the second frame of Transporter 3 and the first frame of Extreme Movie, it’s in trouble. $34mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I predict there will someday be a Best Reboot or Best Remake category, kind of like the Best Revival category in the Tonys.
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CADILLAC RECORDS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dreamgirl
WILL IT SUCK?
In telling the story of Chess Records, writer/director Darnell Martin (helmed a lot of Law & Order: Criminal Intent) has put together some of the most interesting casting since W. Beyonce as Etta James, Mos Def as Chuck Berry, Jeffrey Wright as Muddy Waters, Adrien Brody as Leonard Chess, Cedric the Entertainer as Willie Dixon and Eric Bogosian as Alan Freed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t know that many people have even heard of Chess Records. $31mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.
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EXTREME MOVIE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Teen sex comedy spoof.
WILL IT SUCK?
Before you think this is just another in the long line of crap “Movie” comedies (Date Movie, Epic Movie, etc.) remember, this is from the guys that wrote the far classier The Comebacks and Not Another Teen Movie.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
So the Weinsteins decide to delay The Road and The Soloist but give this the green light for ’08? Maybe it’s because they never intended to spend marketing dollars on it in the first place. $15mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Worst Career Choice: Michael Cera for starring in this.
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FROST/NIXON
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
David Frost (Michael Sheen) interviews post-resignation Richard Nixon (Frank Langella).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is nothing short of sick. IMDB currently has it as the best work from either the director (Ron Howard) or the writer (Peter Morgan – The Last King of Scotland, The Queen) who adapts his own Tony-nominated play. Casting-wise on top of Langella and Sheen (who I contest gave as strong a perf as Mirren in The Queen) you’ve got Sam Rockwell, Oliver Platt, Toby Jones, Kevin Bacon and, of course, Clint Fuckin’ Howard.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The 800lb gorilla in indieville (even though it hardly counts as an indie). $52mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The biggest problem this film faces is two strong leads. They might want to go Supporting with Sheen so as not to split the vote with Langella. Other than that, look for Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay, just to name a few.
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NOBEL SON
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A guy (Shawn Hatosy) kidnaps a Nobel Prize-winning chemist’s (Alan Rickman) son (Bryan Greenberg) in order to expose the chemist as a jerk.
WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Randy Miller and co-writer Jody Savin already impressed critics (if not the box office) with Bottle Shock this summer, and the buzz on this 2007 project given new life is even better. Like Bottle Shock, you’ve got a great (and somewhat similar) cast, including Alan Rickman, Shawn Hatosy, Mary Steenburgen, Bill Pullman, Eliza Dushku, Danny Devito, Ted Danson and Ernie “Will He Be Coming Back for Ghostbusters 3, too?” Hudson.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably about as well as Bottle Shock. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Fun, dark comedy rarely generates that kind of buzz.
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LOCAL COLOR
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Curmudgeonly artist takes on an apprentice.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From writer/director George Gallo, who wrote Midnight Run…and Double Take, Code Name: The Cleaner, See Spot Run, other crap… he also directed Double Take. The buzz suggests that you should ignore all that. Good cast: Armin Mueller-Stahl, Ray Liotta, Charles Durning, Samantha Mathis and Ron Perlman. Won a bunch of awards at the Ft. Lauderdale Film Fest.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Going to be overshadowed.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With a much bigger studio behind it, maybe.
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December 12
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NOTHING LIKE THE HOLIDAYS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Navidad película familiar de reunión.
WILL IT SUCK?
Not much is known about the pedigree, except that the director, Alfredo De Villa, won at Tribeca in ’02 for Washington Heights. Good cast: John Leguizamo, Alfred Molina, Elizabeth Pena, Luis Guzman, Freddy Rodriguez, Debra Messing and Jay Hernandez. Trailer looks kind of cutesy, though.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with Day this week and Seven Pounds next. $19mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think the last time anything resembling a family reunion movie got that kind of love, it was Terms of Endearment, and this ain’t that.
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THE DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Aliens get all up in our grill about being douchebags.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Scott Derrickson’s Exorcism of Emily Rose got some raves. His straight-to-DVD Hellraiser: Inferno, not so much. Screenwriter did The Last Castle, so certainly that justifies remaking a classic. Keanu as Klaatu seems like a slam dunk, but I’m actually much more psyched for Mad Men‘s John Hamm as Dr. Granier. I so want him to teach the aliens how to market themselves.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Bedtime Stories and Yes Man notwithstanding, this is pretty much the event film of the season. $125mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The effects look good.
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DELGO
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
CG’er about two warring races and the one guy who tries to unify them or something.
WILL IT SUCK?
I give the filmmakers a lot of credit. It takes serious cojones to make your first film a self-distributed $40 million animated kid flick. That having been said, the early reviews are not kind.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The bigger animated guns come out next week with Universal’s Tale of Despereaux. $20mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Too many other higher-profile better-reviewed animated flicks to make it into the Animated category.
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DOUBT
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nun (Meryl Streep) vs. priest (Philip Seymour Hoffman) over a did-he-or-didn’t-he do something wrong with a student controversy.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is fantastic. Add to Hoffman and Streep the talents of Amy Adams and Viola Davis (who knocked it out of the park with her five seconds in Out of Sight). Based on the fifth-longest-running play on Broadway and adapted and directed by its writer, John Patrick Shanley who, by the way, the last time he wrote and directed a film created the cult classic Joe Versus the Volcano.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Opening in the heart of Oscar season but that was the point so it can handle the competition. $15mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Streep – Actress. Hoffman – Actor. Davis and Adams can duke it out for Supporting Actress. Shanley’s looking at Director and Adapted Screenplay. And, of course, the Final Five.
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THE READER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy has an affair with this chick and, wouldn’t ya know it?, she turns out to be a Nazi. If I had a nickel…
WILL IT SUCK?
Admit it. You remember director Stephen Daldry more for Billy Elliot than The Hours, don’t you? In any case, he reunites with his Hours adapter David Hare to bring this best-selling novel to the screen with Kate Winslet as the woman accused of war crimes and Ralph Fiennes as the grown up version of the guy looking back on it all.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You can almost see why Harvey wanted to add this to the list of Weinstein Co. “The” movies that he moved to ’09 (The Soloist, The Road). Stiff competition. But that’s what awards season is all about, and this can hold its own (and gets a two day head start over Doubt). Although I will say, great book title, terrible movie title. $12mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The buzz is that Winslet would be up against herself in Revolutionary Road for Best Actress if the Academy allowed the same actor to be nominated twice in the same category so maybe she’d go up for Best Supporting for this one and Best Actress for the other. Of course, both films could suck and she could get neither.
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THE CLASS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
To Monsieur, With Love
WILL IT SUCK?
Probably one of the best reviewed films of the year. Won the Palm D’Or at Cannes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably the only foreign film that could stand up to Doubt and The Reader on opening day, but still… $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It’s France’s submission for Best Foreign and I think it’ll make it in.
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WENDY AND LUCY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Michelle Williams) tries to make it from Indiana to Alaska with her dog on a Grapes of Wrath-type quest for work.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is strong. From the creators of Old Joy. Williams appears to be continuing her streak of outstanding indie performances.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The more probable Oscar contenders will suck the oxygen out of the room. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The best chance this has of that kind of recognition is the fact that Williams is a prior nominee (Brokeback Mountain). Otherwise, like Frozen River before it, it’s just too far below the radar.
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December 19
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SEVEN POUNDS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Will Smith tries to atone for some bad things.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Gabriele Muccino and Smith did a great job (or so I’m told) in 2006 with Pursuit of Happyness and I love me some Barry Pepper, so there’s hope there. On the other hand, writer did an ep of Sabrina the Teenage Witch and a couple of 8 Simple Rules. Nothing against those shows, but not a resume typical of a heavy December pic.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The trailer is not very clear. That will make it a tougher sell to the Smith faithful. And Yes Man won’t help. But it’s still a Smith flick. $97mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Smith could be good for another nod.
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THE TALE OF DESPEREAUX
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mouse-a-touille
WILL IT SUCK?
Co-director Sam Fell also co-directed the better-than-expected Flushed Away. But the real reason to hope here is Gary Ross, who adapted the Newbery Award-winning book by Kate DiCamillo. He’s a master at taking a cheesy premise and spinning it into gold (Big, Pleasantville, Dave).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Between Yes Man this week and Bedtime Stories the next, it’s gonna get killed. $51mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It’s possible. With five slots I’d say definitely. Now that it’s three, it’ll be more of a fight.
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YES MAN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember when Jim Carrey couldn’t tell a lie? Well, now he can’t say “no.”
WILL IT SUCK?
From likeable director Peyton Reed (Down With Love, Bring It On) and a group of writers who have worked on everything from acting in Liar, Liar to directing Forgetting Sarah Marshall – oh, and they’ve done some writing, too. Nothing to knock your socks off, but it shouldn’t flat out suck.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Marley and Me ups the cute quotient the following week, but holiday Carrey is usually a safe bet. $111mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Carrey’s turn as Scrooge and all of the ghosts that haunt him in next year’s A Christmas Carol might put him in the running then.
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GRAN TORINO
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Clint Eastwood’s Death Wish
WILL IT SUCK?
More often than not, Eastwood knows how to bring it, especially with violent tales that have more than a bit of moral ambiguity.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of Doubt and The Reader is no picnic, but is well-matched against the heft of The Wrestler this week. $14mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A lot people thought Changeling was a lock until they actually saw it. Although there’s probably a reason this one was released further into Awards season.
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THE WRESTLER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Darren Aronofsky revives Mickey Rourke’s career.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick, but mostly for Rourke. Won the Golden Lion at Venice. Aronofsky is a phenomenal director (and I say that feeling that two out of his three features are flawed-but-interesting at best), but the trailer is intriguing because this does not look like an Aronofsky film. I’m curious to see the approach he takes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Crowded weekend, but I have a feeling that Searchlight can spin this into a minor hit, what with the redemptive storyline and all. $22mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
To listen to the early buzz, Rourke is the one to beat for Best Actor.
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THE BROTHERS BLOOM
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dirty Rotten Indie Scoundrels
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From Brick maestro Rian Johnson. Outfitted this time with Rachel Weisz, Adrien Brody, Mark Ruffalo, Rinko Kikuchi and Robbie Coltrane.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Going to be overshadowed, but a few folks will be looking for lighter fare. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but it’s a crime that Brick didn’t get any screenplay love.
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NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I Couldn’t Afford the Rights to the Valerie Plame Story So I Wrote This Instead
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz says it’s good, but uneven and overdone (which is not far from the reception writer/director’s Rod Lurie’s prior The Contender got). Like that film, he’s assembled a strong cast: Kate Beckinsale (not Judith Miller), Vera Farmiga (not Valerie Plame), Alan Alda, Angela Bassett and Matt Dillon.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without the budget to make as big a deal out of itself as The Contender did, this will have a hard time. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No money for that campaign either.
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December 26
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BEDTIME STORIES
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Adam Sandler tells his kids bedtime stories that come true.
WILL IT SUCK?
So the plan, certainly, was to introduce Sandler to kid-friendly fare by using a tried and true comedy director (Adam Shankman, whose Hairspray does not make up for The Pacifier, The Wedding Planner and Cheaper by the Dozen 2) and teaming one of his frequent writers (Tim Herlihy, who’s had a hand in the best and worst Sandler fare) with a kid-friendly writer (Matt Lopez, The Wild – you know, the other animated film about zoo animals on the run?). This does not bode well.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nothing standing in its way. $120mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe effects.
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THE SPIRIT
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Frank Miller adapts the classic Will Eisner comic about a cop resurrected from the dead.
WILL IT SUCK?
Frank Miller co-wrote and co-directed the adaptation of his own Sin City, so it seems he should be up to the task. And the source material is from a guy who has a major graphic novel award named after him. Still, nothing I’ve seen so far instills confidence. Not even Sam Jackson as the main baddie. It just looks silly.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nothing quite like it out there, but I don’t think I’m the only one underwhlemed so far. $50mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Sin City and 300 couldn’t even get any technical love…
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VALKYRIE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nazis try to knock off Hitler.
WILL IT SUCK?
Try, for a moment, to forget that it’s Tom Cruise playing a Nazi with his Tom Cruise voice. Instead, imagine I’m telling you that Bryan Singer got back together with Usual Suspects scribe Christopher McQuarrie to do a film with Kenneth Branagh, Bill Nighy, Tom Wilkinson, Thomas Kretschmann, Terence Stamp and Eddie Izzard. Still not convinced? Neither am I. The no-less-than-four release date changes don’t help.
That having been said, early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cruise has become a tough sell. Also, there’s like fifty other movies this weekend. Ironically, it’d be better off with the announced-then-abandoned February 20, 2009 release date, which would give it more breathing room, only putting it up against the latest Tyler Perry film. $60mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Putting it this late in the season with this much competition seems like an Oscar grab. But if UA were serious about giving this an Oscar push, wouldn’t they have had critic’s screenings in time for the critics circles awards? I smell an incoherent Awards strategy mimicking the incoherent release strategy.
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MARLEY & ME
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dickens joke or reggae joke? Dickens joke or reggae joke? Oh, I can’t decide. Anyway, newlyweds Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston get a difficult dog. Life lessons ensue.
WILL IT SUCK?
For what looks like a Pointless Pet Film they’ve thrown some serious talent. David Frankel (Devil Wears Prada, some Entourage and Band of Brothers) directs with Scott Frank (Minority Report, The Lookout, Out of Sight) and Don Roos (The Opposite of Sex) writing. That’s almost enough to make me forget that I’ve lost all interest in Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think the book will actually be a bigger draw than the leads. Yes Man won’t help. $43mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.
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THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Merlin with the aging backwards, but it’s Brad Pitt. So, like, hot Merlin.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great but you had me at Directed by David Fincher and Written by Eric Roth (Munich).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a typically ridiculously crowded Christmas weekend, I think this would benefit more from a platform, word-of-mouth-driven release. $53mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
And how. Look for picture, director (long overdue for Fincher), screenplay, actor, actress (Cate Blanchett) and probably some technical nods, too.
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REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Repressed married couple? In the 50’s? Get the fuck out of here!
WILL IT SUCK?
It’s a sign of how out of touch I am that instead of thinking “Wow, Kate and Leo are back together for this movie!” I’m thinking, “Hey, Sam Mendes is returning to the American Beauty well 40 years earlier!” Early buzz is good in spite of unfavorable comparisons to Mad Men popping up.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Limited releases are pretty much leaving this one alone. $24mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A comer for just about every category. The only real surprise is the buzz generated by relatively unknown character actor Michael Shannon as a Best Supporting Actor contender.
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LAST CHANCE HARVEY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Loser (Dustin Hoffman) finds a second chance at love with British chick (Emma Thompson) while in London for his daughter’s wedding.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good but grudging, as in two seasoned actors rising above the material.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I wouldn’t want to open this against Revolutionary Road. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m sure that’s the idea, but I don’t see it happening.
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WALTZ WITH BASHIR
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Animated doc about a former Israeli soldier trying to regain memories he’s lost about his role in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. Swept the Israeli Film Academy Awards.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Okay. This is one film I would open against Kate and Leo. $5mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There are basically three awards this might be up for. It can’t run for Best Doc because of some technical rule snafu involving its theatrical run. Assuming the necessary L.A. theatrical run, it’s got a shot at Best Animated (and could be the film to beat, if you ask me). As for Best Foreign, Israel did submit it, so it’s got that going for it, too.
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December 31
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DEFIANCE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of four brothers who fought off the Nazis while protecting over a thousand fellow Jews in the forests of occupied Poland during WWII.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good which is too bad since writer/director Ed Zwick usually kicks ass, and has Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber to work with.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Of all the movies Harvey moved to (in this case almost) next year, this one I think should have stayed more firmly in ’08. $16mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The just barely under-the-wire qualifying run release doesn’t bode well, nor do the lukewarm reviews.
Next Month: You expect January to be lousy with crap, but damn.