Let’s play a little game. Every time you see Jude Law mentioned this fall, count. It’s fun. We’ve already seen him in “Sky Captain.” (Well, actually, not a lot of us did, now did we? Which is too bad because it’s a really neat flick in a cheesy retro kind of way.) So we’ll start counting at two. Keep your eyes peeled. Cos’ you never know where he might show up.
Oh, and we’ll look at some other movies, too.
Seriously, though, the guy’s like freakin’ Waldo.
10/1
LADDER 49
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
“For the Love of the Fire.” Joaquin Phoenix reflects on his life as a firefighter while trapped inside a burning building. John Travolta sits outside and does whatever it is that John Travolta does these days.
WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. Director Jay Russell is a master at taking cheesy crap and spinning it into underrated gold (“Tuck Everlasting,” “My Dog Skip”). But the screenwriter is more problematic. He did “October Sky.” Again, much less cheesy than it could’ve been. But he also did “Judgement Night,” which just sucked. All I can say for sure is that Joaquin will be good.
And it was filmed in Baltimore, my hometown, so, um, whee?
And Mayor Martin O’Malley (or, as my girlfriend calls him, Mayor McCutie) makes an appearance. I think he plays John Travolta’s chin.
Early buzz, not so good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although we are all indebted to firefighters, I don’t know that that’s going to translate into butts in seats so much as buying one a beer if you have the opportunity. Especially when families will have the option of taking their kids to see “Shark Tale” the same weekend. $27mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Disney really felt that this was a contender they (a) wouldn’t release it against “Shark Tale” and (b) would wait until at least November and give it a real prestige push.
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SHARK TALE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In a wacky misunderstanding worthy of “Three’s Company,” a lowly fish (Will Smith) takes credit for killing a major figure in the shark mafia.
WILL IT SUCK?
I liked this better when it was called “Sharkslayer.” It just sounded cooler. I’ve actually seen this and I can tell you that it’s entertaining, but basically forgettable. My overall reaction was “meh.”
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
When it opens, it’ll kick “Ladder 49’s” ass. However, the following week’s competition, though minimal, shouldn’t be dismissed if the film fails to perform critically, which it probably will. Kids can just as easily go see a crappy Hilary Duff move as a crappy fish movie. So this will probably end up being a triple instead of a home run. $114mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Will probably go up against its DreamWorks kin “Shrek 2” for best animated, but stands no chance of winning.
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I HEART HUCKABEES
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Existential detectives try to help out a Huckabees (think Walmart) employee align his life.
WILL IT SUCK?
This seems to have shades of “Eternal Sunshine,” right down to the mock corporate website (http://www.huckabees.com/). But director/co-writer David O. Russell is no Charlie Kaufman. He is, however, David O’Fucking Russell (“Spanking the Monkey,” “Flirting with Disaster,” “Three Kings”) and he has yet to do anything uninteresting, if not excellent. So if there’s anyone besides Kaufman with whom I’d trust this sort of material, it’s him.
The cast is fabulous. Former indie it-boy Jason Schwartzman joins Lily Tomlin, Dustin Hoffman, Marky Mark and Jude Law (TWO!) along with the peerless Naomi Watts.
Critics aren’t unanimous, but audiences seem to like it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The previous week’s competition is fairly stiff, from John Waters to “The Motorcycle Diaries,” but none of those have the promotion or star power of this one. Not to mention that this release is probably more anticipated than those. People have been talking about this flick for years, back when it was the “Untitled David O. Russell Project,” which I believe was a 60’s supergroup. $15mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Well, it’s better positioned than “Sunshine,” for this sort of consideration. Look for screenplay, but probably not much else.
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GOING UPRIVER: THE LONG WAR OF JOHN KERRY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Strangely, a remake of “Whitewater Summer.”
No, actually, it’s pretty much what it sounds like. Kerry bio-doc focusing on his tour of duty and beyond.
WILL IT SUCK?
Did you like “Pumping Iron”? Same writer/director. And we see how well that did for Ah-nuld. So twenty years from now, Kerry’s a shoo-in. Actually, the more important films to consider here are a pair of docs the director did on arctic explorer Sir Ernest Shackleton, which received raves in 2000 and 2001.
And Ben Affleck, in what’s sure to be his more tolerable performance of the month, narrates.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think movie-goers have been a little more interested in seeing films bashing Bush (“Fahrenheit 9/11,” “Bush’s Brain,” “The Hunting of the President,”) than directly promoting Kerry, but, then again, there haven’t been any films promoting Kerry, so who’s to say? If it does well, Kerry can count on that all-important independent moviegoer vote, which comprises about .01% of the electorate. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Kerry loses, definitely not. Even if he wins, this has a lot of political doc competition which may squeeze it out.
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WOMAN, THOU ART LOOSED
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hast thou ever heard of the bishop T.D. Jakes? Thou wilst. He playeth himself in this adaptation of his self-help book. In the movie, a woman raised in poverty struggles to freeth herself from addiction. Forsooth.
WILL IT SUCK?
Remember the guy who directed “The Last Dragon”? And “Krush Groove”? And…wait for it…the Fat Boys magnum opus “Disorderlies”? He’s back! After directing lots and lots and lots of TV including the “L.A. Law” movie and “Ally McBeal,” (a primer for this project), he’s joined forces with one of the writers from “Homeboys from Outer Space.” Still, this has some nice advance buzz. It won an award at the Santa Barabara Film Festival and six people on IMDB really seem to like it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
T.D. Jakes actually has a pretty big following. And the book is famous in religious circles. So, if they’re smart, Magnolia Pictures will go for a “Passion”-style church-based marketing campaign to get butts in seats. I’d say there’s a lot of indie competition, but no one who goes to see this will also be going to see “A Dirty Shame.” $5mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Christian phenom buzz at the Oscars this year will have A-list talent attached.
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DiG!
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Behind the Music with The Dandy Warhols and The Brian Jonestown Massacre. I love compound band names. My favorite is Lee Harvey Keitel.
WILL IT SUCK?
Mad props from Sundance (Grand Jury Doc) and much love from audiences and critics alike. This looks like THE music doc of the year (all due respect to Metallica).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has about as good a buzz as possible for a movie about two bands no one’s ever heard of. Which is good, because that’s about all it’s got going for it in a very, very crowded field. $250,000
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
They should, but it’s not going to make enough money to make it onto their radar.
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10/8
TAXI
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
All your old favorites are back. Nardo, Wheeler, Tony, Louie, Ignatowski, Reiger, and, of course, lovable Latka. In an innovative move, all roles will be played by either Jimmy Fallon or Queen Latifah.
Actually, this is a remake of a Luc Besson action franchise that was a hit in France, but all roles will still be played by Jimmy Fallon or Queen Latifah.
WILL IT SUCK?
The last time Hollywood remade a Luc Besson action film, it became “Point of No Return.” Director Tim Story had better not suck, cos’ he’s directing “Fantastic Four” as we speak. He did well with “Barbershop,” but that had different writers. This has writers from “The State” and “Strangers with Candy,” which would be an unusual type of comedy to have in an action film. Refreshing even.
Plus, there’s a writer from “Rush Hour,” “Stakeout,” and “The Hidden,” all, in different ways, very good buddy cop films. However, those are the exceptions. The same writer also gave us films like “Snow Dogs” and “Operation Dumbo Drop” in greater quantities. Much as I would like this film to be good, I don’t think that’s in the cards.
Jimmy Fallon’s a decent actor (check him out in “Almost Famous,” if you can recognize him) and Latifah’s a consistent talent, but that won’t be enough to save this.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not going to have it easy. “Shark Tale,” will still be taking in box office and “Friday Night Lights” won’t be anything to sneeze at. The following week, “Team America: World Police” will be hitting better comedy notes with it’s own brand of action, so this will have to rely on Fallon and Latifah’s followings and a better publicity campaign. None of which are negligible. $82mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but really, look back at Fallon’s one scene in “Almost Famous.” I didn’t even know it was him until I’d seen it, like, five times.
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FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
When the economy’s down, all you have to look forward to is football. Based on the true story of a team in Odessa, Texas.
WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Peter Berg is an interesting cat. His claim to fame is the escapist “Rundown” (which he didn’t write), but he’s shown his skill with hard-hitting fare like the short-lived TV series “Wonderland” (which he did). So I’m interested to see what he does with this. His co-writer doesn’t inspire much confidence (“The Devil’s Own,” “V.I. Warshawski”), but the trailer actually has decent dialogue.
I’m a big Billy Bob Thornton fan – he has better range than most actors working today, though I don’t think this’ll be much of a stretch. Derek “Antwone Fisher” Luke is a fine actor as well. The source material comes from author/journalist Buzz Bissinger, who also provided the article that inspired “Shattered Glass,” so I’m anticipating an interesting story at least. Color me cautiously optimistic.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There will be no crossover between this and “Raise Your Voice.” Other than that, it’s got a little competition from “Taxi,” which will draw on a similar young male demographic. Ditto “Team America” the following week. But football films often do well. Especially in the fall. Especially if Cuba Gooding Jr. isn’t involved. $65mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If “Shattered Glass” can get overlooked, so can this.
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RAISE YOUR VOICE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
“Fame” plus Hillary Duff, minus most of the black people.
WILL IT SUCK?
It should shock no one that this is directed by a guy who used to direct “That’s So Raven.”
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hilary can take even “A Cinderella Story” to significant b.o. $50mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best song? “Fame” won it.
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PRIMER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I love the fact that no one’s really saying what this film is about. All that’s coming out is that it centers on four friends who invent something revolutionary. Something that threatens to tear them apart. Not gigapets.
WILL IT SUCK?
This year’s “El Mariachi.” Not because of guns in a guitar case so much as a seven grand budget. Two awards at Sundance, including Grand Jury. And yet the early buzz is very mixed. Some people love it. Some people hate it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s got about as good a chance as anything else coming out this week in indieland. The positive Sundance buzz should counter the negative advance buzz, until word of mouth sinks it. This means a shorter than usual run for an indie, so they better make their money fast. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
How many Grand Jury Prize winners have ever gone on to be nominated for, much less win, any Oscar? The answer to the first part is two, “American Splendor” (screenplay) and “You Can Count on Me” (screenplay and actress). The answer to the second part is none. And so the likely answer to the main question is no.
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AROUND THE BEND
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Michael Caine begat Christopher Walken, who begat Josh Lucas, who begat some kid you’ve never heard of. They’re all here in this family drama.
WILL IT SUCK?
I think it’s going to be cheesy as balls, but the early buzz is good, and it’s got the Walken, what more do you need?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has the most star power of any indie opening this week, but this type of movie (several generations coming together) has a hard enough time when it’s in wide release (“It Runs in the Family” anyone?). $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Chris won an award at the Montreal Film Fest, but that ain’t the Oscars, so, no.
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VERA DRAKE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You know what wasn’t so popular in 1950’s England? Abortions. Vera Drake performed them on the sly for women in need and got into more than a little trouble for it. This is her story.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very strong, with the film taking two major awards at Venice, including the Golden Lion and Best Actress (Volpi Cup) for the lead, Imelda Staunton. None of this should come as much of a surprise, as writer/director Mike Leigh is pretty damn consistent.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Mike Leigh is also pretty consistent when it comes to box office, he rarely gets any. In this case, the controversial nature of the film could generate some extra interest, but unless Fine Line is really willing push that and get some op ed pieces in the New York Times, that might not happen. Still, it’s interesting to note that this is opening on a Sunday in New York (10/10). A rare move for any film, especially an indie. A clever case of strategery? Who knows? Probably still won’t affect the bottom line. $200,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Mike’s no stranger to the Oscars. “Topsy Turvy” and “Secrets and Lies” were both nominated for Best Writing and he got a directing nod for the latter. The controversial nature of the film might help generate buzz that the box office won’t, but it’s a long shot. At best a writing nod, but an acting nod for Staunton isn’t impossible.
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STAGE BEAUTY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember how in “Shakespeare in Love,” women weren’t allowed onstage? Well, Billy Crudup plays one of those guys that played women’s roles until the law up and changes on him and he has to compete with actual, y’know, women. Gwyneth Paltrow is in no way involved.
WILL IT SUCK?
Buzz is very, very good, and the word “bawdy” keeps coming up in reviews, as if to say it’s not as stuffy as you’d expect from a period comedy. In any case, Crudup is a fine actor and should get to stretch a bit from playing lonely outsiders in this one.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This should be one of the stronger indie performers from this weekend as Lion’s Gate is getting better at promoting its films. However, the following weekend, other films riding a post-Toronto critical wave, like “Eulogy,” “PS,” and “Being Julia,” will bleed away the b.o. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Two words. “Toot.” “Sie.” Crudup could be good for a nom.
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TARNATION
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
And you thought Oliver Stone liked to use multiple media. This documentary culls together a man’s life from Super 8, answering machine messages, snapshots, video diaries, and more, chronicling 19 years in his relationship with his schizophrenic mother.
WILL IT SUCK?
It’s an interesting concept. The guy basically put this whole thing together on his Apple in iMovie for $218. Does that make it a great doc, however? The reviews are mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It won’t take much competition to drown this. However, it won’t take much for it to break even, either, so… $75,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Probably not. $218 won’t even buy you a Golden Globe.
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10/15
TEAM AMERICA: WORLD POLICE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
What “Thunderbirds” should have been. Marionettes making fun of everybody and saving the world from terrorism.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from the minds behind “South Park,” Trey Parker and Matt Stone (Matt’s the one with the afro) along with “Bigger, Longer, Uncut” co-conspirator Pam Brady. My guess is, this is probably going to be the best movie of the fall. Yes, even better than “Alexander.”
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It should feel no heat, except maybe a little from “Taxi’s” second frame. “South Park” has a huge following, and at this point in the campaign, audiences will be looking for a nice, uncultured skewering of politicians and celebrities, many of whom apparently die horribly in this film. $53mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Marc Shaiman is doing the music again. Anybody remember Robin Williams singing “Blame Canada”?
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SHALL WE DANCE?
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
No, we really shouldn’t. Jennifer Lopez and Richard Gere remake a far superior Japanese film about an uptight guy who infuses new life into his marriage by taking dance lessons.
WILL IT SUCK?
Perhaps it’s unfair to say that the Japanese original was vastly superior. But I’m going to anyway. This remake is directed by Peter “Serendipity” Chesolm and written by Audrey “Under the Tuscan Truth About Cats and Dogs” Wells. Not the worst pedigree in the world for a romantic comedy, but nowhere near the quality of the original. And though Richard Gere (playing a Chicago lawyer in a film shot in Canada, again) and Jennifer Lopez have actually given outstanding performances in the past, here it just looks like they’re going to be annoying as hell. The critics, so far, have said as much.
I will give them credit, however, for casting Bobby Cannavale. He rocks. (Go rent the TV series “Kingpin” right now.)
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t think the public is over their J-Lo bashing just yet. Though this can take down “Raise Your Voice” from the previous week, I think more audience members are hoping Lopez will be one of the celebrities killed in “Team America” this week. The following week “Alfie” looks to be a bigger draw for the ladies. $47mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not with those reviews.
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P.S.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Laura Linney finds a guy 15 years younger who looks like her dead high school first love and macks on him.
WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. Critics are split. The pedigree is decent. Writer/director Dylan Kidd, who worked his magic on “Rodger Dodger” is back in the same roles here, adapting Helen Schulman’s novel. The early buzz, though, is that this isn’t nearly as seamless as his debut effort. The leads are getting raves, however, but more on that below.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is an extraordinarily crowded indie weekend. “Being Julia” may damn near run the table based on advanced buzz for Annette Bening, but even without that “Eulogy” has been buzzing since Sundance. It’ll be hard for this to get a foothold, especially without unanimous critical support. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Laura Linney will probably get a nom, but for “Kinsey” over this. Topher Grace? It could happen. But “Rodger Doger” was ignored, probably because of the low gross.
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THE FINAL CUT
(delayed from last month)
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Not to be confused with “The Last Shot,” though it will be, this Philip K. Dick-ish tale depicts a future in which microchips in our brains record our lives so that our loved ones can watch a highlight reel of it when we die. Seriously. Robin Williams plays a guy who puts together those reels. Mad conspiracy ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
Although the early buzz from audiences isn’t so bad, and in spite of a Golden Bear nom at Berlin, this is getting slammed by the critics who’ve seen it so far. I can sort of see where they’re going. I’m having trouble buying the premise already. That seems like a lot of effort to please the family of the dearly departed. It’s hard enough to afford a decent coffin.
On the other hand, Robin Williams is usually much more interesting in Indiewood than Hollywood, and the supporting cast piques the curiosity – Mira Sorvino and Jim Caviezel. And the writer/director, Omar Naim, comes from the world of documentary, so he should have a singular take on the concept of cutting up a life. Still, my guess is the critics are going to be right about this one.
“Angel” fans be alert. Stephanie Romanov (“Lilah”) is up in here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Looks like they read last month’s preview and moved this to not open against “The Last Shot.” Regardless, they’re still opening in a mad busy weekend and will be overlooked. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they didn’t think of Robin for “One Hour Photo,” which got stellar notices, they won’t think of him for this.
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EULOGY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nothing’s funnier than a funeral. Right? Right? Okay, maybe a dark comedy. This one brings together a bunch of family members who proceed to spill family secrets.
WILL IT SUCK?
Critics seem to agree that it’s funny, but not much more than a bunch of people tearing into each other (in a funny way). But the people doing the tearing – Hank Azaria, Zooey Deschanel, Ray Romano – you could do worse.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, a very crowded weekend. Ray might give it an edge, but the “Everbody Loves” crowd doesn’t usually skew this dark. Zooey might actually be a bigger draw for indie fans. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they didn’t give Zooey the love for “All the Real Girls,” they won’t give it to her for this.
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HAIR SHOW
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Queen Latifah’s gonna be in a “Barbershop” spin-off called “Beauty Shop” next year, but this cost much less to make. There’s a beauty shop, a need to raise $50,000, a rival beauty shop, and a competition, and just about every other USA Up All Night clich√© you can think of, minus the car wash. Probably.
WILL IT SUCK?
It’s unclear if the largely sitcom writing experience behind this will be able to deliver anything more than a 100 minute sitcom, but any movie with both Tom “Tiny” Lister, Jr. AND Serena Williams can’t be all bad. Until you look at the trailer, which flat out sucks.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Crowded weekend, yadda, yadda, yadda. This’ll get the short end of it. $800,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but they won’t remember “Beauty Shop” next year, so it balances out.
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RIDING THE BULLET
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hey, remember e-books? Remember the first e-book? It actually sold well! That’s probably because it was a Stephen King novella that’s now gone the way of all King and made it to the big screen (strangely, as a limited release). Maybe that’s because the leads are Jonathan Jackson (Lucky!) and David Arquette. Jonathan gets a ride from David, which would be creepy enough, but apparently Arquette plays a creepy character on top of that.
WILL IT SUCK?
Roughly one in three King adaptations don’t suck. This probably won’t be one of them. It’s got Mick Garris at the helm. He also writes. His best rated screenplay on IMDB? “Batteries Not Included.” Not good times.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a lot of indie fans go around saying, “Let’s go see that new Stephen King movie!” Even fewer say, “Let’s go see that new David Arquette movie!” Everything about this feels like a straight-to-DVD release, except for the fact that it’s actually being released in theaters. My guess is that fans of the e-book will wait until this comes out on DVD and watch it then, maybe on the same computer on which they read the book. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No. But they will remember it on the E-Oscars. Just an idea I’m pitching. I’m still working out the kinks. First I have to write some really bad e-banter for the guest announcers.
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SPIN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Fledging young magazine must cope with reputation as Rolling Stone’s ugly stepsister.
Or coming of age story directed by Robert Redford’s son.
WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. This, of course, is based on what little advance buzz exists. For all I know, Robert Redford’s second cousin wrote that review. This is James Redford’s debut effort, so there’s really very little to go on, unless you’ve read the Donald Everett Axinn novel upon which this is based. You haven’t? Well, a fat lot of help you are.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not as well as if it had been directed by this guy’s dad. $100,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Same answer.
BEING JULIA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
All About Annette.
WILL IT SUCK?
If you ask the critics, yes. If you ask the pedigree, no. This comes from director Istvan Szabo, who, though I’ve never seen any of his movies, supposedly has yet to make a misstep. Until now, perhaps. The writer did “The Pianist” and “Taking Sides,” suggesting a holocaust specialty, but he also wrote “The Dresser,” suggesting a facility with backstage drama, which this is. Still, audiences and critics are not impressed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Oscar buzz still seems to be lingering, despite the reviews. This may translate into a nice indie opening, but not much else. Especially with “Stage Beauty,” another backstage drama with much better reviews, already in theaters. $6mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Good buzz for Annette. With two noms to her name already, it seems likely.
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THE DUST FACTORY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two kids help each other through a difficult time. Armin Mueller-Stahl mentors one of them. Seriously. The actual synopses for this flick are that vague.
WILL IT SUCK?
The writer/director used to work on “Penn & Teller: Bullshit!” so it should be interesting to see what he does with more touchy-feely fare. No, actually, it probably won’t.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Have you been keeping count? Eight limited releases this weekend! This’ll get plowed. $50,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so much.
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10/22
SURVIVING CHRISTMAS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Look! It’s Ben Affleck! And he’s annoying people!
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, the Affleck Suck Parade has been in full swing lately, and judging by the trailer and the choice of directors (two words – Deuce Bigalow), this should follow suit. However, the writers here are deceptively talented. I say deceptively since two of them co-wrote such underrated gems as “Josie and the Pussycats” and “Can’t Hardly Wait.” The other two wrote for “Duckman,” “The Critic” and “The Simpsons,” so they’re just talented. So how did this team of writers contribute to a troubled set, constant re-writes, and James Gandolfini refusing to come out of his trailer out of woe? Perhaps they didn’t. Maybe you should just see if you can download the original screenplay somewhere.
My advice to young Affleck, get thee to an independent film set. And I don’t mean Project Fucking Greenlight.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
“Team America” will be serious competition, even in it’s second frame. As much as the J-Lo love is lacking right now, it’s even harder for Affleck, who kept making movies and stayed in the public eye while that eye got irritated and red and kind of pissed off. Perhaps DreamWorks thought there was something “meta” about Affleck playing a guy who wears out his welcome in a family’s home, but watching that isn’t necessarily more fun than experiencing it. $7mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Oh, that’s a good one.
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THE GRUDGE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sarah Michelle Gellar moves into a home in which some bad mojo went down years ago. Creepy, grudge-induced paranormal shit ensues. I’ll tell ya what the grudge is over. The last season of “Buffy” sucked balls.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is the second remake of a Japanese film to hit screens this month, but it promises to be much better. Give credit to Sony for hiring the original director. Actually, the director first made this as a straight-to-video hit in Japan, whose success inspired his helming a theatrical feature version, so this is his third time directing this damn film. He oughtta be pretty freakin’ good at it by now.
William Mapother (a.k.a. Tom Cruise’s brother a.k.a. the object of revenge in “In the Bedroom”) is up in here, which probably only makes me happy, but I think he’s cool.
And in another nice piece of trivia, Jason Behr, who co-starred with Gellar in the “Lie to Me” episode of “Buffy” (back in season two when the show didn’t suck so extremely, extremely horribly I hate it soooo much!) plays her boyfriend here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There’s nothing really scary about this October (unless you count the impending elections or half the movies in this preview) so this should run the table for horror fans. “The Ring” it may not be, but it’ll pocket some coin. $39mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I mean you don’t understand. It was a good show. Much better than you’d expect. But then it started to decay in season four and it was all just downhill from there. I don’t want to talk about it anymore.
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ALFIE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jude Law (THREE!) reprises the role Michael Caine made famous in…Wait. What do you mean you’ve never heard of “Alfie”? It was nominated for five Academy Awards people! Yeah, I never saw it, either.
WILL IT SUCK?
By rep, “Alfie” is a movie with a whole lotta fuckin’. It’s about a guy who sleeps around and damn the consequences (which in the original include not one, but two pregnancies, one of which ends in an abortion). It centers on a pitiful, self-loathing, dark character for whom we feel sympathy, but not the warm, cuddly kind.
So why is the writer/director of the “Father of the Bride” remake up in here?
Maybe it’s because he also did a remake of “The Parent Trap.” Maybe that’s why the trailer comes off looking like “Alfie McBeal.”
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Strangely, this stands the best chance of owning its weekend. I think a lot of people would like to see “Alfie McBeal,” or at least Jude Law fucking a lot. $52mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Jude might have a shot here, but I think one of his other, less sit-commy performances will get more attention. Maybe “Closer.”
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SIDEWAYS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Buddy road movie Alexander-Payne-style.
WILL IT SUCK?
I’ve actually seen this movie and I can tell you that, no, it does not suck. In fact, it’s pretty awesome. Great character study/romance/comedy in the style of 70’s character-driven pieces. Great performances from Paul Giamatti, Virginia Madsen (no, really) and that guy from “Wings” (Thomas Hayden Church, not Paul McCartney). Check it out.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is one of the better contenders in Indieville. Paul Giamatti has a decent indie following, and so does writer/director Payne. Remember, “About Schmidt” not only made bank, but it also won Payne a Golden Globe. Of course, that had Jack Nicholson. Marketed right, though, this should still be a significant draw. $20mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Keep an eye on Giamatti. Madsen’s kind of a long shot, though. With even more positive buzz than “Schmidt,” don’t be surprised if Payne makes another run at screenplay and his first bid for director.
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THE MACHINIST
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It’s about time someone made a movie about a lathe worker. Christian Bale plays Trevor Reznik (Trent Reznor much? Seriously, you should see him in the trailer.), a guy who hasn’t slept in over a year. Paranoid delusions (or are they really out to get him?) ensue.
WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. Director Brad Anderson wrote the creepy, underseen “Session 9.” Though he only helms this one, it’s clear he knows how to establish a mood, which is probably going to be half the battle here. The other half is the writing which, unfortunately, falls to the guy who did the “Texas Chainsaw” remake, though maybe he’s learned some stuff since then. Christian Bale looks to be the, um, other, other half of this formula. His performance is supposed to be outstanding. He went all “Pianist” thin for this, which will become important in a couple paragraphs.
Early buzz is positive.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is probably in about as good a position as “Sideways,” though “Sideways” has a more crowd-pleasing vibe whereas this is only going to draw people comfortable with the idea of being weirded out. And of that group, everybody who likes Christian Bale. Okay, maybe it’s not in quite as good a position. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The road to Oscar is paved with self-mutilation. Christian may finally win the nom he was criminally denied for “American Psycho” and, of course, “Newsies.”
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LIGHTNING IN A BOTTLE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
“Standing in the Shadows of the Blues.”
WILL IT SUCK?
Do you like the blues? Pretty much every major living blues legend is up in here, along with Aerosmith and Macy Gray. Early buzz is mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Blues die-hards may check this out, but most people will just wait until “Ray” opens a week later. $250,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If “Standing” couldn’t get that kind of attention, this won’t. However, I think Antoine Fuqua should get a WTF?!? award for directing this and “King Arthur” in the same year.
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UNDERTOW
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Coming of age story/Domestic thriller, David Gordon Green style.
WILL IT SUCK?
Unfortunately, the early buzz is steering in that direction. Reviews are mixed at best. The rich character growth that Green brought to “George Washington” and “All the Real Girls” is apparently missing here, or misdirected. The natural beauty thing he does so well seems intact, though.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Green’s faithful will return, but will likely be disappointed, creating bad word of mouth for the uninitiated. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Green will have to wait until he’s finished with “A Confederacy of Dunces” to get that kind of attention.
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SEX IS COMEDY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A while ago, writer/director Catherine Breillat made a movie called “Fat Girl.” “Sex is Comedy,” which she also wrote and directed, is about a Breillat-like director making a movie just like “Fat Girl.” Specifically, a sex scene in that movie. Only problem is, the two actors who have to do it don’t like each other.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is ok, but not great.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In this crowded a field, it’s gonna take more than a 92 minute sex scene to put asses in seats. (Okay, if it were ACTUALLY a 92 minute sex scene that probably would be enough). $750,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Well, if it were a 92 minute sex scene, they’d remember it at the Adult Video Awards. That close enough?
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10/29
SAW
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two men wake up chained to opposite walls of a room. They are given two options. Kill the other person or you both die. Sort of like “Battle Royale” on a really, really small scale.
WILL IT SUCK?
Critics are split on this one. They fall into two camps. Those who saw the twists coming and those who didn’t. So I guess it has to do with how well you read movies. Either this is the next “Blair Witch” (albeit gorier) or the next “Blair Witch 2” (albeit with less naked chicks). This was Lion’s Gate’s other big pickup at Sundance (along with “Open Water”). They’re getting a rep for indie horror, scoring big with “Cabin Fever” last year. Let’s just hope this doesn’t fall as short of the hype as “Open Water.” A hype which I admit to pimping.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Overrated or not, “Open Water” made $30mil. for Lion’s Gate and will probably double that (at least) on DVD. The distributor, who dropped the ball on “Frailty,” have since learned how to market low-budget horror. Witness “Cabin Fever’s” $21mil. They’ve decided to go wide with this one, too. With the studio-polished “Grudge” as its only competition, it should get a decent share of the Halloween weekend. $23mil.
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RAY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ray Charles biopic. Not to be confused with those Ray Kroc, Ray Milland, and Ray Bradbury biopics you’ve seen.
WILL IT SUCK?
Audiences seem to like it less than critics, which is unusual for a biopic. But here may be the culprit. Director Taylor Hackford isn’t exactly Richard Attenborough. On IMDB, this flick is being rated behind his “Against All Odds” and “White Nights.” I have a soft spot for “White Nights,” but this is Ray Charles we’re talking about here.
On the other hand, everyone seems to be raving about Jamie Foxx, so there’s that.
All I can say is, I can’t wait to see Curtis Armstrong (y’know, “Booger”?) as Atlantic Records founder Ahmet Ertegun.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is a nice little bit of counterprogramming. Instead of releasing a scary flick over the Halloween weekend, Universal is going for a prestige picture. And there’s nothing like it in either direction. Sadly, the recent death of the legend will, in fact, work in their favor. It’s not their fault, obviously, although the timing of the release is. I’m sort of conflicted about that myself. Is it a timely tribute, or a shrewd marketing move? Either way, look for this to pull in some serious bank this weekend before “The Incredibles” obliterates everything in its path the following weekend. $59mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The road to Oscar is paved with what? Foxx reportedly underwent surgery to induce temporary blindness to help him connect with the role. And he arranged to be born black just to get the part. That’s dedication, people.
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ENDURING LOVE
(moved from last month)
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Rhys Ifans stalks Daniel Craig after both are involved in a ballooning accident. Ifans (“Danny Deckchair”) really has to stay away from floating transportation.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is a good match of director and material. Director Roger Michell did a fine job showing two protagonists’ lives imploding in “Changing Lanes,” and novelist Ian McEwan provided the source material, yet another in his string of works chronicling fucked up familial/relationship dynamics (“The Comfort of Strangers”). The writer is the unkown link, having only penned the little seen and little regarded “Some Voices” a few years back. Early reviews are mixed.
Props on scoring Samantha Morton and Bill Nighy for the supporting cast, however.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
They’ve certainly moved this to a less crowded weekend, as no other indies are definitely opening then. That, of course, will change, but for the time being this has upped its chances a little. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No more noms for Samantha for a while, I think.
I believe the children are our future. And by the future, I mean next month. Lots for the kiddies in November. Which is good since roughly half the adults will be very disappointed for 28 of those days.
And to be sure that they’re disappointed, I want each and every one of you to go out and vote. And don’t give me any of that “I’m a convicted criminal!” or “I’m only seven!” crap, either!
Here endeth the lecture.
—DAVE THOMAS
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